How to control H5N1 bird flu: kill them or do the immunity
　　　Recently, Jimin Wang with his team, the IAED Grain Safety and Live Stock Innovation Team, did a comprehensive evaluation on the technology and economy value of H5N1 preventive strategies by setting up simulation model of animal epidemic disease. After the research, it is thought that the preventive measure -- compulsory immunity taken in China for fighting H5N1 costs too much; instead, the killing was much better. Theses concerned can be read on Scientific Reports, an online magazine belongs to Nature Magazine.
　　　Since 2004, aviculture in China has been greatly affected by H5N1. Since the end of 2005, all chickens, ducks and geese etc have required to get compulsory immunity. Although compulsory immunity took effect, but the cost was quite high. This was really hard for our finance. According to our estimate, every year, the quantity of H5N1 vaccines used in China was about 20 million, which required about 6 billion Yuan; in the past 10 years, the total cost spent on H5N1 immunity was more than 60 billion Yuan.
　　　Now, whether immunity shall be done on H5N1 is still being argued a lot. Grain Safety and Livestock Economy Innovation Team found that “overall immunity” measure can lower the occurrence possibility of H5N1, about 50%, which makes the quantity of killed birds was lowered by 91% and the time of H5N1 existence will be lowered by 1/4. although “overall immunity” got an obvious effectiveness but its profit can not cover the cost spent on preventing H5N1. Under the condition not taking into account of the indirect situation, if only killing the birds, the cost spent on fighting with H5N1 from 2004 to 2012 was only 1.36% of that is required by “overall immunity”. That is 57 billion Yuan could be saved. Therefore, we can say that killing birds has an extraordinary economic advantage.
　　　This research provides a new view on the preventive measures used to control H5N1, which can improve the scientificity of the decisions made for preventing H5N1. The research was greatly assisted by the subject “chicken economic research” carried out by Chinese Academy of Agriculture Sciences Innovation Engineering and Modern Agricultural Industrial Technological System. Sun Zhen (IAED post-doctor) is the first author while Jimin Wang (IAED researcher) is the corresponding author.
　　　Article Linkage: https://www.nature.com/articles/srep46441